Canadian Home Sales Forecast Hinges on Bond Yields

A bank economist sharply cut Canada’s resale outlook, shifting from a much smaller forecast decline earlier in 2026 as bond yields climbed.
National home sales are projected to ↓~5% this year, while avg. prices are expected to finish flat before a modest 2027 gain.
The outlook assumed the central bank would stay on hold near 2%, but modest next-year gains depended on bond yields easing in current Q4.
Support for a recovery also hinged on pent-up demand and a slowly improving job market, though the labour outlook was trimmed after trade tensions.
Even under the baseline, next-year sales were expected to remain well below pre-pandemic levels, showing how elevated yields could extend Canada’s slower reset.